American Friends Service Committee
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS – ROOT CAUSES, KEY DRIVERS AND CONSEQUENCES OF CONFLICTS ALONG SELECTED RIFT VALLEY/ WESTERN/NYANZA REGIONS IN KENYA, MATHARE AND DANDORA IN NAIROBI, AND THE ECOSYSTEM THAT LEADS TO INSTABILITY IN AFFECTED AREAS
1.0 About AFSC
The American Friends Service Committee (AFSC) is a Quaker Organization that promotes lasting peace with justice as a practical expression of faith in action. AFSC works for a just, peaceful, and sustainable world free of violence, inequality, and oppression. We join with people and partners worldwide to meet urgent community needs, challenge injustice, and build peace.
1.1 Project Name: Strengthening Social Cohesion and Justice Through Expanded Civic Space
1.2 Context and background
Ethnic-based political propaganda has dominated Kenyan politics during elections for many years. Elections in the country remain emotive and violence the norm. The 2022 elections came at a time of significant economic and political discontent, with Kenyans concerned about rising costs of living, public debt, corruption, and post Covid-19 recovery. Consequently, ethnic politics switched to identity politics, featuring an inter-class competition, hinged on socio-economic inequalities, dubbed as ‘hustler[1] against dynasties[2]’. The rhetoric of “Hustler versus Dynasty” coupled with a powerful personal narrative greatly shifted the political debate from ethnic to class-based politics setting up a face-off between the “haves and the have nots”. The use of hateful rhetoric by powerful political figures increases the likelihood of political violence. The use of political rhetoric is a major contributor in fueling ethnic conflict by either failing to intervene or by spreading propaganda which undermines the positive relationships between different ethnic groups. Although the 2022 elections were relatively peaceful, the post-election period has been turbulent with demonstrations and brutal police response. The citizens have borne the brunt of disproportionate use of force by police in attempting to quell those protesting against the high cost of living. Police violently repressed the demonstrators, using guns, batons, and other lethal weapons. A few borderline areas, Nairobi and Kisumu counties were the epicenters of violence. Additionally, conflict in certain border areas seems endemic and erupts from time to time. For instance, the problem of cattle rustling and intra-county, cross-county trans-border banditry has persisted particularly in the North Rift counties of West Pokot, Turkana, Elgeyo Marakwet, Baringo, Samburu, Marsabit and Isiolo where dozens of lives have been lost, hundreds displaced, and social order and public safety and security disrupted. Apart from cattle related conflicts, ethnicity also defines Kenya and manifests itself especially in contestation for power and the presidency. This predominantly plays out during elections when leading political elites (with strong ethnic base) forge alliances with other tribes so as to garner majority votes to win the presidency. Political parties are not only weakly institutionalized; they are ethnic in membership depending on the ethnic identity of the founder.[3] Primarily, political parties are conceived as vehicles for winning elections rather than for interest aggregation at a broader ideological level. Political related violence has been witnessed in the border of Western Kenya, Nyanza, Rift Valley areas before, during and after elections. Unemployment and underemployment, lack of security has led to the proliferation of unregistered groups in informal settlements and rural areas that are misused to cause violence by the elites.
Besides, civic space in the country has been stifled by the systematic repression of protests and protesters as stated above; the country has witnessed attacks on journalists, the human rights community; and sporadic vilification campaigns targeting specific CSOs. The Media has been under attack from the government with threats of gagging some media outlets.
1.3 Purpose of the Assignment
AFSC Regional Office in Nairobi is seeking the services of a consultant to undertake a situational analysis on the root causes, key drivers and consequences of conflict along the borders of Rift Valley/Western/Nyanza regions**,** and in the informal settlement of Mathare and Dandora the ecosystem that leads to instability in these areas. The assignment should respond but not limited to the following questions:
- What are the key drivers/causes of the border violence/Conflict along the borders of Rift Valley/ Western/Nyanza regions?
- What are the key drivers/causes of violence in informal settlements of Nairobi, specifically Dandora and Mathare?
- Are there early warning signs of violence along the border areas?
- What have been the consequences of the conflict/violence (human and material)?
- What are the pathways to sustainable and peaceful co-existence?
- To what extent have women and youth been impacted by the violence/conflicts?
- What have been the limitations of CSOs in advocating for peace in the affected areas?
- What are the implications on social cohesion, justice, and response capacity of communities in the above areas?
- What has been the role of the media, government, CSOs in deescalating or exacerbating the violence? What actions have been taken by other actors to address peace?
- What community networks and CSOs exist that address peace in these areas?
1.4 Objectives of the study are as follows:
- To establish the conflict dynamics in the identified areas in borders of Rift Valley/ Western/Nyanza regions and in informal settlements of Nairobi
- To establish the key driving factors of the violence in the target areas, implications on social cohesion, justice and response capacity of communities?
- Map out CSOs and find their situation in affected areas (Is there space to play a positive role?).
- Identify the spaces available for engagement among the conflicting parties, peace actors, media and all relevant actors to bring peace.
- To establish the pathways for sustainable and peaceful co-existence
- To suggest recommendations for the community, youth, and women, the CSOs, Government actors for a sustainable peace in borders of Rift Valley/ Western/Nyanza regions and Nairobi areas
- To make recommendations for relevant action towards social coherence and sustained peaceful co-existence among the different communities in the target areas.
1.5 Expected deliverables
- Inception report
- Draft report on the situational analysis in the above-mentioned conflict prone areas, responding to the key objectives above.
- A validation meeting with AFSC and Quaker partners.
- A final report with recommendations of possible interventions by AFSC and other actors to bring social cohesion and policy efforts for the affected communities and spaces available to address these, challenges that can affect these efforts by CSOs, communities among others.
2.0 Methodology
The study design and methodology will be mixed and include secondary/desk study from various writings, focus group discussions, interviews with communities (community youth, women, men, elders, religious organizations and other key informants). The consultant key documents of the project, review all documentation, and prepare a workplan. The consultant will also finalize the methodology of the study, including but not limited to the finalization of the sample size (determine the sample size and with AFSC agree on study sites), the development of the tools among others.
2.1 Timeframe and Support
Logistical support during the assignment
AFSC will provide all the necessary background documents prior to the commencement of the assignment. This will include:
- Proposal document
- Relevant studies in the country
- Potential leads for interviews.
- Introduction letter where applicable.
- Accommodation and subsistence (meals) at agreed rate during the assignment where applicable.
- Prompt feedback on all deliverables, (To written feedback within one week of receipt).
2.2 Duration of the assignment
Baseline study will be conducted and completed within twenty (20) consultancy days spread from 5th November to 10th December 2023. The final report including all the comments from should be received by 10th December 2023.
3.0 Qualifications
- The ideal candidate should have postgraduate qualifications in relevant discipline such as political science, peace and conflict or any relevant social science discipline.
- Minimum of 5 years of hands-on experience in conducting baseline surveys and evaluations for development programs in East and Africa context.
- Extensive knowledge of the political, social and economic context of Kenya.
- Demonstrate record in delivering peace building, conflict resolution, research, and policy advocacy programs in the African context.
- Proven track of record on quantitative and qualitative data collection tools and analysis and participatory approaches.
- Experiences in using theory of change.
- Strong interpersonal skills and ability to work with people from different backgrounds to deliver quality products within a short time frame.
- Experiences and/or know-how in project implementation
- Flexible, adaptable, responsive and open to feedback.
- They should demonstrate alignment with Quaker values.
3.1 Key Skills and Competencies
- Exceptional skills to analyze complex information and make judgement with respect to relevance, responsiveness, and confidentiality.
- Expertise and understanding of administrative structures, policies, systems, and practices. • Strong oral and written communication skills. Ability to work independently within stipulated timelines.
- Excellent content design and customization skills.
- Ability to package information to meet the needs of the audiences.
[1]Hustler is term of politics coiled by President Ruto which is associated with Kenyans who are an employed or unemployed youth, struggling to survive in a harsh economic environment.
[2] Dynasty is a term that refferes to the wealthy political families that have enjoyed the benefits of power stretching back to 1960s when Kenya gained independence
[3] Kenya Human Rights Commission, Ethnicity and Politicization in Kenya, June 2018
How to apply
4.0 Application procedure
Complete proposals (including a cover letter, CV, profile, budget and three references, must be received by close of business on 1st November 2023 to the Regional Human Resource and Administration Manager, P.O. Box 66448 – 00800 Nairobi, Kenya. Or email application packet (preferable in Adobe PDF file) to infoafrica@afsc.org
Proposals should be no more than five pages and should include the complete scope of work and deliverables include:
1) Objectives and understanding of the assignment.
- Expected outputs and product.
3) Demonstrable experience in similar assignments
4) Availability to deliver the assignment within the required timeframe.
5) Financial and Technical proposal in Kenya shillings for the entire assignment.
6) Three (3) referees (based on similar engagements)
4.1 Schedule
The proposal should include a set of dates available to the evaluator and a preferred timetable. Final reports should be submitted by 15th December 2023.
The AFSC is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.